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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 4 at the 59

Washington Commanders 14 – Philadelphia Eagles 10

What Actually Happened

(5:11) 5-T.Way punts 59 yards to end zone, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.66 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.36 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 59, worth -3.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 18, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model