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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 6 at the 7

Minnesota Vikings 6 – Los Angeles Chargers 3

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 5-D.Bailey 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-A.Cutting, Holder-2-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +2.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.36 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 7, worth -0.07 EP
KICK +1.64 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.94 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP