4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 4 at the 23

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Minnesota Vikings 6

What Actually Happened

(4:40) 4-M.Badgley 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-C.Mazza, Holder-1-T.Long.

The Three Options

GO +1.94 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.97 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 23, worth -0.58 EP
KICK +1.77 EP
What Happened
  • 85% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 33, worth -1.29 EP
PUNT +0.16 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model