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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 7 at the 61

Minnesota Vikings 39 – Los Angeles Chargers 10

What Actually Happened

(4:27) 2-B.Colquitt punts 56 yards to LAC 5, Center-58-A.Cutting, downed by MIN-38-K.Boyd.

The Three Options

GO -1.05 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +1.21 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 61, worth -2.65 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 20, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model