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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 14 at the 15

Los Angeles Chargers 10 – Minnesota Vikings 25

What Actually Happened

(15:00) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass incomplete short left to 81-M.Williams.

The Three Options

GO +1.73 EP
What Happened
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.36 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 15, worth +0.15 EP
KICK +2.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.53 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25, worth -0.47 EP
PUNT +0.53 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.60 EP