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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 9

Minnesota Vikings 22 – Los Angeles Chargers 10

What Actually Happened

(7:10) 5-D.Bailey 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-A.Cutting, Holder-2-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +3.62 EP
Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.43 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 9, worth -0.02 EP
KICK +1.76 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.83 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.86 EP