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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 43

New York Giants 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(14:57) 9-R.Dixon punts 32 yards to MIA 11, Center-69-C.Holba, downed by NYG-17-C.Core.

The Three Options

GO +0.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.54 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 43, worth -1.93 EP
KICK -0.89 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 12, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model