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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 1 at the 10

Miami Dolphins 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(2:24) 42-P.Laird right guard to NYG 13 for -3 yards (24-J.Love, 94-D.Tomlinson).

The Three Options

GO +3.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.23 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 10, worth -0.29 EP
KICK +1.51 EP
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth -1.05 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model