4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 12 at the 70

New York Giants 36 – Miami Dolphins 20

What Actually Happened

(:59) 9-R.Dixon punts 44 yards to MIA 26, Center-69-C.Holba, downed by NYG.

The Three Options

GO -1.68 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +0.56 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 70, worth -2.64 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 28, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model