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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 1 at the 31

Miami Dolphins 13 – New York Giants 36

What Actually Happened

(2:26) (Shotgun) 37-M.Gaskin left tackle to NYG 29 for 2 yards (90-R.McIntosh, 29-D.Bucannon).

The Three Options

GO +1.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.25 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 31, worth -1.14 EP
KICK +0.94 EP
  • 68% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 41, worth -1.38 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model