Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 15 at the 44

Miami Dolphins 13 – New York Giants 30

What Actually Happened

(12:52) 2-M.Haack punts 29 yards to NYG 15, Center-46-T.Pepper, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.66 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.01 EP
74% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 44, worth -2.30 EP

KICK -1.29 EP

32% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
68% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model