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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 10 at the 75

Miami Dolphins 13 – New York Giants 23

What Actually Happened

(4:24) 2-M.Haack punts 50 yards to NYG 25, Center-46-T.Pepper. 18-D.Scott pushed ob at NYG 34 for 9 yards (34-D.Turner).

The Three Options

GO -2.33 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.52 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 75, worth -4.43 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 32, worth -1.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model