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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 9 at the 31

Miami Dolphins 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(10:44) 7-J.Sanders 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-2-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +0.19 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.37 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 31, worth -1.75 EP
KICK +0.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 41, worth -2.43 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model