Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 14 at the 57

Denver Broncos 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 6

(4:52) 6-C.Wadman punts 41 yards to KC 16, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 17-M.Hardman.

The Three Options

GO -1.66 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.84 EP
73% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 57, worth -3.30 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model