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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 6 at the 54

Kansas City Chiefs 23 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(8:05) 2-D.Colquitt punts 38 yards to DEN 16, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-30-A.Brown.

The Three Options

GO -0.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.47 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 54, worth -2.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.47 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 16, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model