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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 14 at the 42

Denver Broncos 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 23

What Actually Happened

(9:40) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock pass incomplete short right to 17-D.Hamilton [55-F.Clark].

The Three Options

GO -0.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.00 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 42, worth -2.17 EP
KICK -0.71 EP
  • 46% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.67 EP
PUNT -0.67 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 12, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model