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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 3 at the 57

Denver Broncos 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(11:51) 6-C.Wadman to DEN 33 for -10 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at DEN 34. 6-C.Wadman punts 39 yards to KC 18. 17-M.Hardman to KC 16 for -2 yards (27-D.Harris). PENALTY on DEN-43-J.Jones, Ineligible Downfield Kick, 5 yards, enforced at KC 16.

The Three Options

GO -0.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.34 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 57, worth -3.47 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -1.08 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 17, worth -1.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP