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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 52

Denver Broncos 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 12

What Actually Happened

(3:46) 3-D.Lock pass deep left to 87-N.Fant to KC 9 for 43 yards (35-C.Ward). DEN-87-N.Fant was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO +0.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.36 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 52, worth -2.78 EP
KICK -1.74 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.70 EP
PUNT -0.77 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 15, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model