Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 10 at the 75

Denver Broncos 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 9

(11:57) 6-C.Wadman punts 50 yards to KC 25, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 17-M.Hardman pushed ob at KC 25 for no gain (27-D.Harris).

The Three Options

GO -2.56 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.23 EP
66% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 75, worth -4.47 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model