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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 4 at the 59

Buffalo Bills 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(6:16) (Punt formation) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 41 yards to PIT 18, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 18-D.Johnson.

The Three Options

GO -0.88 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.90 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 59, worth -3.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.94 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 18, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model