Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 4 at the 71

Buffalo Bills 17 – Pittsburgh Steelers 10

(5:21) (Punt formation) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 52 yards to PIT 19, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 18-D.Johnson.

The Three Options

GO -1.46 EP

48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.15 EP
52% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 71, worth -3.92 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model