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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 8 at the 73

Pittsburgh Steelers 10 – Buffalo Bills 10

What Actually Happened

(10:11) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 43 yards to BUF 30, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 18-A.Roberts.

The Three Options

GO -1.93 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.80 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 73, worth -3.99 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 31, worth -1.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model