Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 10 at the 74

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Buffalo Bills 7

What Actually Happened

(6:33) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 58 yards to BUF 16, Center-57-K.Canaday. 18-A.Roberts to BUF 36 for 20 yards (44-T.Matakevich). PENALTY on BUF-57-L.Alexander, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 28.

The Three Options

GO -2.29 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.81 EP
68% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 74, worth -4.23 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model