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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 36

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(3:06) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short right to 85-G.Kittle pushed ob at ATL 31 for 5 yards (45-D.Jones). Caught at ATL 38. 7-yac

The Three Options

GO +2.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.83 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 36, worth -1.62 EP
KICK +0.56 EP
  • 63% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 37% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 46, worth -2.36 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model