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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 3 at the 65

San Francisco 49ers 13 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(11:00) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 55 yards to ATL 10, Center-86-K.Nelson. 38-K.Barner to ATL 17 for 7 yards (82-R.Dwelley). FUMBLES (82-R.Dwelley), RECOVERED by SF-44-K.Juszczyk at ATL 15. 44-K.Juszczyk to ATL 1 for 14 yards (33-B.Wreh-Wilson).

The Three Options

GO -0.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.05 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 65, worth -3.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -1.02 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 23, worth -1.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP