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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 15 at the 85

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(10:40) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 46 yards to ATL 39, Center-86-K.Nelson. 38-K.Barner to ATL 41 for 2 yards (31-R.Mostert).

The Three Options

GO -2.72 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.71 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 85, worth -4.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -1.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 43, worth -1.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model