Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 13 at the 80

Atlanta Falcons 10 – San Francisco 49ers 13

(2:45) 9-R.Allen punts 53 yards to SF 27, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 13-R.James Jr..

The Three Options

GO -2.74 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.39 EP
69% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 80, worth -4.62 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model