4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 4 at the 28

San Francisco 49ers 10 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(5:20) 9-R.Gould 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +1.63 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.51 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 28, worth -0.86 EP
KICK +1.38 EP
What Happened
  • 80% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.19 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 38, worth -1.89 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model