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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 5 at the 52

San Francisco 49ers 10 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(12:49) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 41 yards to ATL 11, Center-86-K.Nelson. 38-K.Barner to SF 49 for 40 yards (53-M.Nzeocha). PENALTY on ATL-35-J.Carter, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 8 yards, enforced at ATL 16.

The Three Options

GO -0.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +3.13 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 52, worth -2.89 EP
KICK -1.68 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.81 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 15, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP