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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 4 at the 4

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(:27) 9-R.Gould 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +2.96 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.70 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 4, worth +0.11 EP
KICK +2.70 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.75 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21, worth -0.17 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model