4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 7 at the 25

Atlanta Falcons 7 – San Francisco 49ers 7

What Actually Happened

(2:41) 7-Y.Koo 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-9-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +0.70 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.58 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25, worth -1.32 EP
KICK +1.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 35, worth -1.88 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model