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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 5 at the 70

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(6:22) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 42 yards to ATL 28, Center-86-K.Nelson. 38-K.Barner to ATL 35 for 7 yards (31-R.Mostert).

The Three Options

GO -1.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.69 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 70, worth -3.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.23 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 28, worth -1.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model