Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 2 at the 67

San Francisco 49ers 45 – New Orleans Saints 46

What Actually Happened

(:39) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short left to 85-G.Kittle to NO 28 for 39 yards (43-M.Williams; 22-C.Gardner-Johnson). PENALTY on NO-43-M.Williams, Face Mask (15 Yards), 14 yards, enforced at NO 28. Pass 7, YAC 31

The Three Options

GO -0.34 EP

What Happened

61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.54 EP
39% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 67, worth -1.69 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model