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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 41

New Orleans Saints 30 – San Francisco 49ers 35

What Actually Happened

(6:29) 60-P.Omameh reported in as eligible. 7-T.Hill left guard to SF 36 for 5 yards (57-D.Greenlaw).

The Three Options

GO +1.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.36 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 41, worth -1.88 EP
KICK +0.01 EP
  • 55% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.68 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 12, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model