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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
New Orleans Saints
4th & 1 at the 1
New Orleans Saints 20 – San Francisco 49ers 14
What Actually Happened
(7:31) 9-D.Brees up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
The Three Options
GO
+3.75 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
63% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.73 EP
- 37% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 1, worth +0.45 EP
KICK
+1.75 EP
- 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
- 1% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.97 EP
PUNT
-0.33 EP
- San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
