4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 66

Seattle Seahawks 3 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(3:05) 4-M.Dickson punts 51 yards to LA 15, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 14-N.Webster.

The Three Options

GO -0.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.36 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 66, worth -3.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.18 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 24, worth -1.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.03 EP