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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 18 at the 90

Seattle Seahawks 12 – Los Angeles Rams 28

What Actually Happened

(3:06) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep middle to 10-J.Gordon to SEA 33 for 23 yards (22-T.Hill).

The Three Options

GO -3.38 EP
What Happened
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +0.99 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 90, worth -5.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -1.79 EP
Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 47, worth -1.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.59 EP