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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 15 at the 16

Seattle Seahawks 9 – Los Angeles Rams 28

What Actually Happened

(7:07) 5-J.Myers 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +0.83 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.41 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 16, worth -0.82 EP
KICK +1.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26, worth -1.27 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model