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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 7 at the 19

Los Angeles Rams 21 – Seattle Seahawks 9

What Actually Happened

(5:45) 4-G.Zuerlein 37 yard field goal is BLOCKED (98-R.Green), Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +1.35 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.16 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 19, worth -0.50 EP
KICK +1.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 29, worth -1.12 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model