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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 6 at the 93

Seattle Seahawks 9 – Los Angeles Rams 21

What Actually Happened

(8:23) 4-M.Dickson punts 45 yards to LA 48, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 14-N.Webster.

The Three Options

GO -3.02 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 87, worth +0.11 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 93, worth -5.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (110 yards).

PUNT -2.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 51, worth -2.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model