4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 24

Seattle Seahawks 3 – Los Angeles Rams 14

What Actually Happened

(7:36) (Pass formation) 74-G.Fant reported in as eligible. 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete short right to 17-M.Turner.

The Three Options

GO +2.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.28 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24, worth -1.28 EP
KICK +1.09 EP
  • 86% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.55 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 34, worth -1.87 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model