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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 6 at the 8

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(7:27) 4-J.Lambo 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +2.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.39 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 8, worth +0.48 EP
KICK +2.37 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.45 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.30 EP
PUNT +0.35 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model