Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 10 at the 75

Jacksonville Jaguars 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 45

(10:31) 9-L.Cooke punts 51 yards to LAC 24, Center-46-M.Orzech, fair catch by 20-D.King.

The Three Options

GO -2.28 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.72 EP
67% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 75, worth -4.24 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model