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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 3 at the 52

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Los Angeles Chargers 31

What Actually Happened

(9:19) (Punt formation) 9-L.Cooke pass short left to 13-M.Walker pushed ob at LAC 43 for 9 yards (15-J.Guyton).

The Three Options

GO -0.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.85 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 52, worth -2.82 EP
KICK -1.63 EP
  • 23% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 77% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model