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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 7 at the 66

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(11:40) 9-L.Cooke punts 42 yards to LAC 24, Center-46-M.Orzech. 20-D.King to LAC 25 for 1 yard (40-B.Watson; 43-J.Giles-Harris).

The Three Options

GO -1.32 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.35 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 66, worth -3.50 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 24, worth -0.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model