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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 2 at the 44

Minnesota Vikings 20 – Detroit Lions 7

What Actually Happened

(1:50) 23-M.Boone left tackle to DET 44 for no gain (91-A.Robinson).

The Three Options

GO +0.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +1.77 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 44, worth -1.54 EP
KICK +0.05 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -1.82 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 12, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model