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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 5 at the 10

Detroit Lions 0 – Minnesota Vikings 20

What Actually Happened

(2:14) (Shotgun) 10-D.Blough pass short left to 19-K.Golladay for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +1.92 EP
What Happened
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.46 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 10, worth -0.40 EP
KICK +1.96 EP
Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21, worth -0.73 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model