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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 12 at the 50

Minnesota Vikings 20 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(5:48) 2-B.Colquitt punts 33 yards to DET 17, Center-58-A.Cutting. 80-D.Amendola to DET 25 for 8 yards (50-E.Wilson).

The Three Options

GO -0.56 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.09 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 50, worth -2.41 EP
KICK -0.98 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.41 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 14, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model