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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 2 at the 67

Detroit Lions 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(10:38) 6-S.Martin punts 54 yards to MIN 13, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 21-M.Hughes to MIN 18 for 5 yards (44-J.Reeves-Maybin).

The Three Options

GO -0.76 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.24 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 67, worth -4.06 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.34 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 25, worth -1.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP