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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 12 at the 52

Detroit Lions 0 – Minnesota Vikings 20

What Actually Happened

(10:09) 6-S.Martin punts 44 yards to MIN 8, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 81-O.Johnson.

The Three Options

GO -0.91 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.18 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 52, worth -2.75 EP
KICK -1.45 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.70 EP
PUNT -0.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 15, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model